Johannesburg – South African police statistics continue to highlight the extreme danger of engaging in any altercation when a firearm is present, with data showing that attempts to confront, resist or escalate situations involving guns almost always end in death or serious injury for at least one party.
According to the South African Police Service (SAPS) crime statistics for the 2024/2025 financial year released in September 2025, a total of 27 498 murders were recorded nationwide. Of these, 8 764 murders (approximately 32%) were committed with firearms. In the same period, 44 258 aggravated robberies involving firearms took place, and attempted murder cases linked to gun violence exceeded 7 000.
Independent analysis of police dockets by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) reveals that in more than 70% of firearm-related murders where the circumstances are known, the incident began as a minor dispute – road rage, domestic arguments, tavern disagreements, or neighbourhood conflicts – that rapidly escalated once a gun was produced or brandished.
The Gun Free South Africa organisation, using verified police and mortuary data, reports that in cases where a legally owned firearm was used in a murder or attempted murder, the victim was known to the shooter in 68% of incidents. This includes family members, friends, acquaintances and neighbours. Legal gun owners who drew their weapons during arguments were themselves killed in 41% of recorded cases when the opposing party was also armed or managed to disarm them.
Forensic pathologist Dr Reggie Perumal, who conducts post-mortems in KwaZulu-Natal, stated in 2025 evidence presented to the Portfolio Committee on Police that the average distance between shooter and victim in civilian firearm homicides is under three metres. “These are not considered self-defence distances,” Dr Perumal noted. “They are execution-style or heat-of-the-moment shootings where emotions overrode any possibility of de-escalation.”
The Firearms Control Act (Act 60 of 2000) requires licence holders to avoid conflict and retreat where possible before using lethal force. Courts have consistently ruled that drawing a firearm during a verbal argument or minor scuffle does not meet the legal threshold for justifiable homicide. Between 2020 and 2025, fewer than 9% of private citizens who shot someone during an altercation were acquitted on self-defence grounds, according to Department of Justice annual reports.
Road rage incidents provide one of the clearest examples of the lethal consequences of escalation. The Road Traffic Management Corporation (RTMC) and SAPS recorded 1 184 shooting incidents linked to road rage between 2022 and 2025. Of the 312 fatalities in these cases, 298 victims were armed themselves and had either brandished or fired their weapons first or in response.
Security risk analyst Willem Els of the ISS summarised the data in a 2025 briefing paper: “South African research spanning two decades consistently shows the same outcome – once a firearm enters any confrontation, the statistical probability of someone dying exceeds 60%. The only variable that reliably reduces this to near zero is choosing not to engage at all.”
Crime prevention officers across all nine provinces now include the same core message in community safety programmes: walk away, drive away, or de-escalate verbally the moment any indication of a firearm appears. Police spokespeople repeatedly state that no road dispute, neighbourhood argument, or personal insult justifies the risk of a gunshot wound that carries a national case fatality rate of over 70% according to Trauma Society of South Africa figures.
South Africa currently has approximately 2.9 million licensed firearm owners and an estimated 10–12 million illegal firearms in circulation, according to the 2025 Small Arms Survey. This combination, combined with high levels of interpersonal violence, makes any confrontation involving a gun statistically more dangerous than in almost any other country outside active war zones.
Authorities and analysts agree on one evidence-based conclusion: in South Africa, when a firearm is present or suspected, avoiding the altercation entirely remains the only intervention proven to preserve life.
